2022 Lower Saxony state election

← 2017 9 October 2022 Next →
All 146 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony, including 11 overhang and leveling seats 74 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	3,657,881 (60.3%) 2.8 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Stephan Weil Bernd Althusmann Julia Hamburg & Christian Meyer Party SPD CDU Greens Last election 55 seats, 36.9% 50 seats, 33.6% 12 seats, 8.7% Seats won 57 47 24 Seat change 2 3 12 Popular vote 1,211,418 1,017,276 526,923 Percentage 33.4% 28.1% 14.5% Swing 3.5% 5.5% 5.8%   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Stefan Marzischewski-Drewes Stefan Birkner Party AfD FDP Last election 9 seats, 6.2% 11 seats, 7.5% Seats won 18 0 Seat change 9 11 Popular vote 396,839 170,298 Percentage 11.0% 4.7% Swing 4.8% 2.8%
Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats.
Government before election Second Weil cabinet SPD–CDU Government after election Third Weil cabinet SPD–Green

The 2022 Lower Saxony state election was held on 9 October 2022 to elect the 19th Landtag of Lower Saxony.^[1] The incumbent government was a coalition of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) led by Minister-President Stephan Weil.

The SPD remained the largest party with 33% and gained two seats, despite a decline of 3.5 percentage points. The CDU suffered a larger loss and won 28%. Alliance 90/The Greens recorded their best result to date in the state, taking 14.5% on a swing of six points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) made gains for the first time in any election since October 2019, improving to 11%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell just short of the 5% electoral threshold and lost representation.

Amidst an ongoing energy crisis and looming recession, commentators described the result as a victory for the incumbent federal SPD government of Olaf Scholz, who had suffered a decline in popularity and recent losses in other state elections.^[2]

Minister-President Weil ruled out continuing government with the CDU and formed a new coalition with the Greens. He was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 8 November, and his cabinet was sworn in the same day.^[3]

Background

Following the 2017 Lower Saxony state election, the incumbent red-green coalition government of minister-president Stephan Weil was 2 seats short of a majority in the Landtag. Due to FDP leader Stefan Birkner ruling out any coalition with SPD or Greens, and the Greens ruling out any coalition with CDU and FDP, the only option for a majority government was a grand coalition of SPD and CDU, considering no party wanted to form a coalition with the AfD.^[4]

On 22 November 2017, Weil was reelected as minister-president receiving 104 out of 137 votes as the head of a grand coalition.^[5]

Electoral system

The Landtag of Lower Saxony is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Its minimum size is 135 seats. Of these, 87 are elected in single-member constituencies, and the remainder are determined by party lists. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates within each individual constituency, and the "second vote" for party lists. There is an electoral threshold of 5% of second vote to qualify for seats. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method, with additional overhang and leveling seats provided to ensure proportionality. The normal term of the Landtag is 5 years.^[6]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 18th Landtag of Lower Saxony.^[7]

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted

Party polling