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2023 Nagorno-Karabakh clashes
Part of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Military situation in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 For a more detailed map, see the detailed map
Date 19 September 2023 – present (2023-09-19 – present) (7 months and 3 weeks) Location Nagorno-Karabakh Status Ongoing Territorial changes Per Azerbaijan: 60 combat positions captured by Azerbaijan[1]
Belligerents
Azerbaijan	Artsakh
Commanders and leaders
Ilham Aliyev	Samvel Shahramanyan
Units involved
Azerbaijani Land Forces  Azerbaijani Air Force	Artsakh Defence Army
Casualties and losses
Unknown	Per Artsakh: 23 combatants killed[2]
Per Azerbaijan: 3 civilians killed[3][4] Per Artsakh: 5 civilians killed 80 civilians wounded[5][6]

On 19 September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive on the self-declared breakaway state of Artsakh,^[7][8][9] which is internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan.^[10] The attacks occurred in the midst of an escalating crisis caused by Azerbaijan blockading the Republic of Artsakh, which has resulted in significant scarcities of essential supplies such as food, medicine, and other goods in the affected region.^[11]

Background

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians. The Nagorno-Karabakh region is entirely claimed by and partially de facto controlled by the breakaway Republic of Artsakh but is recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan de facto controls one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh region as well as the seven surrounding districts.

The conflict escalated in 1988, when the Karabakh Armenians demanded the transfer of the region from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia, triggering the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. In late 2020, the large-scale Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. An armistice was established by a tripartite ceasefire agreement on 10 November, resulting in Armenia and Artsakh losing the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh as well as one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.^[12] Ceasefire violations in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border have continued following the 2020 war, with intermittent but ongoing casualties.

Since the 2020 war, Azerbaijan has rescinded its offer of special status or autonomy to its indigenous Armenian residents and instead insists on their "integration" into Azerbaijan.^[13][14] International mediators and human rights organizations have emphasized self-determination for the local Armenian population^[15][16] and do not believe that Artsakh Armenians can live safely under the regime of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.^[17][18]

Prelude

Since December 2022, Azerbaijan has blockaded the Republic of Artsakh from the outside world, in violation of the 2020 ceasefire agreement and international legal rulings.^[19] The Azeri government seized territory around the Lachin corridor both within Artsakh and Armenia, blocked alternative bypass routes, and installed a military checkpoint.^[20][21][22] Azerbaijan has also sabotaged critical civilian infrastructure of Artsakh, including gas, electricity, and Internet access.^[23][24]

The blockade has created a humanitarian crisis for the population of Artsakh; imports of essential goods have been blocked, as well as humanitarian convoys of the Red Cross and the Russian peacekeepers, trapping the 120,000 residents of the region.^[25][26] Shortages of essential goods – including electricity, fuel, and water reserves – are widespread and emergency reserves are being rationed, alongside massive unemployment, and closures of schools and public transportation.^[27][28]

Azerbaijan claims its actions are aimed at preventing the transportation of weapons and natural resources;^[29][30] Azerbaijan also says its goal is for Artsakh's "integration" into Azerbaijan, despite opposition from the population, and has threatened military action if the Artsakh government does not dissolve.^[31][32]

Numerous countries, international organizations, and human rights observers have condemned Azerbaijan's blockade and consider it to be a form of hybrid warfare,^[33][34][35] ethnic cleansing,^[36][37][38] and genocide.^[39][40] Multiple international observers also consider the blockade and the inaction of the Russian peacekeepers to be violations of the tripartite ceasefire agreement signed between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia, which ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and guarantees safe passage through the Lachin corridor.^[41][42] Azerbaijan and Russia have ignored calls from various countries and international organizations to restore freedom of movement through the corridor.^[43][44]

Two weeks before the clashes, the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention issued a report in which it said "There is alarming evidence that President Aliyev may be planning a military assault on Artsakh in the very near future," noting that Aliyev recently had signed a new decree ordering all eligible citizens 18 years of age or older to report for military service between 1 October and 31 October 2023. The Lemkin Institute also warned that "A military assault on Artsakh could lead to the mass murder stage of genocide. It would almost assuredly result in the forced displacement of Armenians from Artsakh and the widespread commission of genocidal atrocities......Artsakh's Armenians would lose their distinct identity as Artsakhsis, an identity that has been forged through centuries—millennia—of independent cultural flourishing in their mountains and valleys."^[45]

Overview

Timeline

19 September

On 19 September 2023, the Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense released a statement, claiming that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces were shelled by Armenian forces, leading to increased tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The statement followed with information that there has been fortification of battle positions, increased mobilization units, and expanded reconnaissance activities. The statement accused Armenia of killing two civilians on the same day with a vehicle with a land mine attached exploded which in response, launched "local anti-terrorist activities" demanding the disarmament and withdrawal of all ethnic Armenian soldiers, as well as the unconditional surrender and dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh.^[46] The statement ended with a notice that the Russia peacekeeping contingent and the Turkish-Russian Monitoring Center were informed about the ongoing activities,^[47] but Russia denied this, adding that its peacekeepers were only informed of the matter a "few minutes" before it started.^[48]

Azerbaijan claimed that no civilian positions were being attacked with weaponry, but it was clear that strikes were being carried out in close proximity to large cities and densely populated areas.^[49] The attacks occurred in the midst of an escalating crisis caused by the Azerbaijani government effectively blockading the Republic of Artsakh. This blockade has resulted in significant scarcities of essential supplies such as food, medicine, and other goods in the affected region.^[49] Azerbaijan said that it had set up “humanitarian corridors and reception points on the Lachin road and in other directions" which will “ensure the evacuation of the population from the dangerous area.”^[50] These announcements were distributed through SMS, leaflets, and social media and triggered fears of ethnic cleansing among the residents.^[51] Artsakhi authorities warned its residents that "the Azerbaijani propaganda machine uses large-scale information and psychological influence measures."^[52][53]

Nagorno-Karabakh’s leadership offered to negotiate with Azerbaijan after it launched its military offensive. “The Karabakh side appeals to the Azerbaijani side to immediately cease the hostilities and sit down at the negotiation table with the aim of settling the situation,” it said in a statement issued late in the afternoon. The office of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev responded by saying that it is ready to meet with Karabakh Armenian representatives in the Azerbaijani town of Yevlakh. It stressed at the same time that the Azerbaijani offensive will continue unless the Karabakh Armenians disband their government bodies and armed forces.^[54]

Artsakh authorities said the state's de facto capital, Stepanakert, and other cities were “under heavy shelling”, accusing Azerbaijan of attempted ethnic cleansing.^[55][56] Artsakh's human rights ombudsman Gegham Stepanyan said two civilians, including a child, were killed,^[57] while 11 others were injured,^[58] eight of which were children.^[59]

Analysis

Various political analysts and Artsakh residents consider Azerbaijan's underlying goal for the offensive to be ethnic cleansing.^[50][60]

Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Europe, noted that Azerbaijan was possibly emboldened to start its offensive during a downturn in relations between Russia and Armenia, and the loss of the Russian peacekeeping force's "best commanders" to the invasion of Ukraine. He also said that Russia could use such a crisis to instigate regime change in Armenia.^[59]

Reactions

Regional actors

Armenia

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the Armenian Armed Forces were not involved in the fighting and that its forces were not stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh. He also reiterated that the situation in the Armenia-Azerbaijan border was stable and said that Azerbaijan was trying to ethnically cleanse the region.^[55] Pashinyan also said that Azerbaijan's motivation for the attack was to draw Armenia into a military confrontation.^[61] Armenia’s Ministry of Defense accused Azerbaijani officials of spreading misinformation, saying that there is no Armenian military equipment or personnel present in Nagorno-Karabakh.^[55][62] The Armenian foreign ministry accused Azerbaijan of unleashing “large-scale aggression” against Karabakh and attempting “ethnic cleansing” in the region.^[55][56] Armenia called on the United Nations Security Council and Russia to take action in order to end the military operation, while Pashinyan called an emergency meeting of the country's National Security Council.^[55]

Inside Armenia

Hundreds of protesters gathered for a rally outside government buildings in the capital Yerevan denouncing Pashinyan as being soft on Azerbaijan and weak in Nagorno-Karabakh, with some calling for a coup d'état and the removal of Pashinyan from office. Pashinyan denounced such calls stating that "We must not allow certain people, certain forces to deal a blow to the Armenian state."^[63]

Azerbaijan

Hikmet Hajiyev, advisor to the president of Azerbaijan, said Baku would only be ready to talk to the Karabakh Armenians once they raise the white flag and disarm. He also added that Azerbaijan has no military objective in Armenia.^[64]

Russia

Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a statement that Russia was "deeply alarmed by the sharp escalation."^[55][65] Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia will not defend Armenia from the Azerbaijani offensive, while strongly criticizing Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan.^[66] This comes despite Russia and Armenia both being members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization mutual defense pact and Russia stationing several thousand soldiers in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh as peacekeepers.^[67]

Turkey

Hakan Fidan, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, offered diplomatic support to Azerbaijan, stating that their military operation was "justified" and that "Azerbaijan has taken the measures it deems necessary on its own sovereign territory."^[68]

Other countries

•  France: The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the military operation and called for Azerbaijan "to immediately cease its assault and return to respect for international law" and requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council.It stated that France had been "working closely with its European and American partners" to effectively respond to the attack, which it described as "unacceptable".^[69]
•  Germany: Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock accused Azerbaijan of breaking promises not to resort to military action in Nagorno-Karabakh and called on it to stop and return to negotiations.^[70]
•  United States: United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with Turkish diplomats about the crisis.^[69]

Supranational organizations

•  European Union: President of the European Council of the European Union Charles Michel condemned Azerbaijan's hostility and urged the country to immediately stop its military activities and return to dialogue, through a social media post.^[55]

•  United Nations: U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric told Al Jazeera that the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh was "very concerning". He urged both sides to halt hostilities and go back to "sustained dialogue".^[55]

See also

• September 2022 Armenia–Azerbaijan clashes
• Blockade of the Republic of Artsakh (2022–present)
• Armenia–Azerbaijan border crisis (2021–present)
• Second Nagorno-Karabakh War
• 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
• First Nagorno-Karabakh War
• Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
• List of conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia
• Armenia–Azerbaijan relations

References