2023 Polish parliamentary election

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All 460 seats in the Sejm 231 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	29,532,595
Turnout	21,966,891 (74.4%) 12.7pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Mateusz Morawiecki[a] Donald Tusk Szymon Hołownia Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz Party PiS PO PL2050 / PSL Alliance United Right Civic Coalition Third Way Last election 235 seats, 43.6% 134 seats, 27.4% 30 seats, 8.6% Seats won 194 157 65 Seat change 41 23 35 Popular vote 7,640,854 6,629,402 3,110,670 Percentage 35.4% 30.7% 14.4% Swing 8.2pp 3.3pp 5.8pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Włodzimierz Czarzasty Robert Biedroń Sławomir Mentzen Krzysztof Bosak Party NL NN / RN Alliance The Left Confederation Last election 49 seats, 12.6% 11 seats, 6.8% Seats won 26 18 Seat change 23 7 Popular vote 1,859,018 1,547,364 Percentage 8.6% 7.2% Swing 4.0pp 0.4pp
Government before election Second Morawiecki cabinet PiS (ZP) Government after election Third Tusk cabinet[b] KO—PL2050—PSL—NL

Parliamentary elections were held in Poland on 15 October 2023, per the Polish Constitution. Seats in both the lower house, the Sejm, and the Senate were contested. At the polls, a referendum - containing four questions concerning economic and immigration policy of the government - was also voted on.

In the previous 2019 Polish parliamentary election, the ruling right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS) had held onto its majority in the Sejm with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki forming a second government. The PiS sought to win a third term which would be unprecedented in Polish history. The opposition, including the Civic Platform Party and others, secured a Senate majority. In the lead-up to the 2023 elections, opposition leader and former prime minister, Donald Tusk, led the Civic Coalition political alliance in opposition to the PiS.

The United Right alliance placed first for the third straight election and won a plurality of seats but fell short of a Sejm majority. The opposition, consisting of the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left, achieved a combined total vote of 54%, managing to form a majority coalition government.^[1][2] In the Senate, the opposition electoral alliance Senate Pact 2023 won a plurality of the vote and a majority of seats. Voter turnout was 74.4%, the highest in contested elections and the highest since the fall of the communist Polish People's Republic, beating previous records set in 1989 and 2019.

Background

2019 Polish parliamentary election

The 2019 parliamentary election saw a record high turnout, with over 60% of registered electors participating. It also saw the centre-left, in the form of Lewica, entering the Sejm after four years on the outside looking in. Conversely, the far right united under the Konfederacja (Kon) banner to enter one of the two chambers of parliament for the first time since the 2005 elections.^[3]

Right-wing parties, coalesced around the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) within the United Right (ZP) alliance, won the highest percentage of votes ever received since the complete return to democracy in 1991, maintaining their majority in the Sejm, but losing it in the Senate. The PiS party president, Jarosław Kaczyński, thus saw his position as the country's strongman strengthened, despite occupying no governmental position. This result saw the second reelection of a majority government since the fall of the Eastern Bloc. Despite not defeating PiS, the main opposition party, the liberal Civic Platform (PO), itself within the Civic Coalition (KO) alliance, progressed in the senate, though without winning a majority of seats on its own. The opposition altogether did win a majority of seats in the senate, thanks to Lewica, the Polish Coalition (PSL) and independent candidates' gains.^[3][4]

One month after the vote, the incumbent Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, formed his second government. Its composition showed the so-called "moderate" right strengthened, which Morawiecki was part of, alongside a weakening of the "radical" right, led by the Justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro. This strategy was mainly to appeal to the more moderate electorate for the 2020 Polish presidential election.^[5] Morawiecki's government received the Sejm's confidence on 19 November with 237 votes for, 214 against and three abstentions.^[6][7]

2020 presidential election

The 2020 presidential election saw the reelection of incumbent president Andrzej Duda, himself a member of Law and Justice. Originally planned in May, the elections were very affected by the then ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The government's proposal to maintain the election in May but only through postal votes launched a strong polemic, with the opposition denouncing the unequal campaigning capacities of the incumbent president compared to other candidates within the context of the lockdown and quarantine measures. The election was then postponed to late June following a compromise within the ruling coalition and the opposition's approval, partly thanks to the latter's control of the Senate.^[8]

Despite the pandemic, both rounds of voting saw higher turnouts, with Duda facing the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, a member of Civic Platform. Duda beat Trzaskowski, gathering 51% of the votes against the latter's 49%. These results were the most closely fought presidential elections since the return of democracy.^[9]

Duda's victory allows PiS take advantage from his presidential veto in case of an opposition victory in the legislative elections, with the opposition needing a three-fifths majority, which currently amounts to 276 seats, to override one.^[10]

2023 Polish protests

In May 2023, a law previously passed by the Sejm with the votes of the governing parties came into force, which provides for the establishment of a commission that can, without a court order, exclude politicians from public office for a period of ten years if, in their opinion, the politician was influenced by Russian interests. According to the law, the commission must examine whether this applies to Polish government politicians from 2007 (after PiS' defeat in the 2007 election). According to critics, the law could have been used as an instrument to prohibit selected opposition politicians from taking part in the parliamentary elections.^[11] Polish media therefore spoke of a "Lex Tusk" – a law aimed at the opposition leader and former prime minister Donald Tusk (2007–2014), who could have been excluded from the parliamentary elections in October 2023 as the potentially most promising opposition candidate.^[12] PiS party circles repeatedly accused Tusk of making Poland dependent on energy imports from Russia during his term as head of government. The law drew strong criticism from the United States and the European Union, which expressed concern that the law jeopardized freedom and fairness in elections in Poland. President Duda then softened the law by introducing an amendment to the Sejm on 2 June 2023, which deprived the proposed commission of the previously planned right to impose a ban on political activity.^[13]

On 4 June 2023 (the anniversary of the first partially free elections in Poland in 1989) according to organizers, citing the city administration, half a million people took part in a "Great March for Democracy" organized by Tusk's Civic Platform in Warsaw to protest against the law.^[14] There were also protests with tens of thousands of participants in other cities, including Krakow, Szczecin and Częstochowa. The demonstration in Warsaw was joined by numerous civil rights movements, the Civic Platform spoke of the largest demonstration in Poland's history since the fall of communism in 1989. The protest march through the center of Warsaw was also led by the former Polish President Lech Wałęsa.^[15][16]

Electoral system

The President of Poland set the election day to be Sunday, 15 October 2023.^[17] This date was consistent with requirements posed in Article 98 Section 2 of the Polish Constitution, whereby the election is to take place within the final 30 days of the current term of Parliament (ending 11 November 2023). The vote ought to be held on a non-working day – a Sunday or a public holiday. Other possible dates included 22 October 29 October, 1 November, 5 November and 11 November.^[18]

The process of election for the Sejm is through party-list proportional representation via the D'Hondt method in multi-seat constituencies,^[19] with a 5% threshold for single party (KW) and citizen committees (KWW) and an 8% threshold for coalitions (KKW). National minority committees, such as the German minority, can apply to be exempt from the nation-wide threshold, and in such case participate in the d'Hondt seat distribution within their constituency, in this specific case Opole, regardless of the national share of votes.^[20] Contrary to popular belief, minority committees are not guaranteed seats in the parliament.^[21]

Senators are elected by first-past-the-post method in 100 constituencies. Most of the opposition (Civic Coalition, New Left and Third Way) signed a so-called senate pact, under which the parties agreed to enter one commonly accepted candidate in each district.^[22] This strategy has previously granted them 51 seats despite losing the Sejm.^[23]

Lists

Electoral committees registered in all constituencies