Finland–NATO relations

NATO	Finland

Finland has been a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since 4 April 2023.^[1]

In the aftermath of World War II, following the formation of NATO in 1949 and throughout the Cold War, Finland maintained a position of neutrality, in what became known as Finlandization, in the face of its often complicated relations with the Soviet Union.

The possibility of membership became a topic of debate in the country after the end of the Cold War and following the country's accession to NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme and the European Union (EU) in the mid-1990s.^[2] In spite of these new bonds to Europe and the West, public support for NATO accession remained low.

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point in the debate, and swung public opinion in favour of NATO membership. Along with neighboring Sweden, the country applied to join NATO on 18 May 2022. Following ratification, Finland became a member of NATO on 4 April 2023.^[3][4] Finland has a 1,340-kilometre (830 mi) border with Russia, which upon accession more than doubled NATO's pre-existing border with Russia.^[5][6]

History

Background: Finnish neutrality at the end of World War II

At the end of World War II, Finland had to cut its ties with Germany, with which it had allied against the Soviet Union in the Continuation War. Following the war, foreign policy was guided by the Paasikivi–Kekkonen doctrine, which aimed to ensure Finland's survival as an independent sovereign, democratic, and capitalist state next to the Communist Soviet Union. This was to be achieved by maintaining good enough relations with the Soviet Union to avoid war with its eastern neighbor. The Finnish government refused foreign aid from the United States under the Marshall Plan due to Soviet pressure. Shortly afterward, the YYA Treaty was concluded between Finland and the Soviet Union.

1949–2023: Pre-membership relations

1949–1991: Finnish neutrality during the Cold War

NATO was founded in 1949. As opposed to neighbouring Norway, Finland chose not to join. The Cold War was marked by Finlandization, in which Finland retained its nominal independence and control over its internal affairs, while the conduct of foreign policy during this period was always more or less limited by the need to avoid conflict with the Soviet regime and its foreign policy. As a result, Finland took neutral stances to stay out of great power conflicts, and refrained from joining NATO, the European Communities, or other institutions which were established following the war by the Western democratic states, as well as the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact.^[7] During the peak of the Cold War, the Finnish government made a conscious effort to increase defence capabilities to ensure a strong deterrent for any potential invasion. From 1968 onward, the Finnish government adopted the doctrine of territorial defence, which requires the use of large land areas to delay and wear out a potential aggressor. This was complemented by the concept of total defence, which calls for the use of all resources of society for national defence in times of crisis.

1991–1995: Immediate aftermath of the Cold War

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union between 1988 and 1991, the threat posed to Finland's independence was diminished. NATO emphasized its open door policy to admitting new members, and many former Eastern Bloc and post-Soviet states joined the alliance in the 1990s and 2000s. Through subsequent governments the Finnish position was that joining NATO was unnecessary, and it was preferable to retain an independent defence policy, though if conditions changed the country had the right to exercise the option to join NATO.^[8] Removing barriers to effectively exercising the option to join an alliance (for example, by increasing interopability) is a part of this policy.^[9] Finland joined NATO's Partnership for Peace in 1994.

1995–2022: Shift from non-alignment within the European Union

The country did move away from neutrality during this period though, joining the European Union in 1995 which required adopting its Common Foreign and Security Policy.

Finland became a member of the European Union in 1995. Since the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon in 2009, the EU mutual solidarity clause applies to Finland along with other EU member states:

If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States.

— Article 42.7 of the consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union

Article 42.2 specifies that NATO shall be the main forum for the implementation of collective self-defence for EU member states that are also NATO members. The other EU member states that are outside NATO and consequently resort to the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP, which has a much smaller structures and capabilities than NATO's command structure) for the implementation of collective self-defence, are Austria, Cyprus, Ireland, Malta and Sweden.

The possibility of Finland's membership in NATO was one of the most important issues debated in relation to the Finnish presidential election of 2006.^[10] The main opposition candidate Sauli Niinistö, of the National Coalition Party, supported Finland joining a "more European" NATO.^[10] Fellow right-winger Henrik Lax of the Swedish People's Party likewise supported the concept. On the other side, president Tarja Halonen of the Social Democratic Party opposed changing the status quo, as did most other candidates in the election. Her victory and re-election to the post of president put the issue of a NATO membership for Finland on hold for the duration of her term.

In 2007, Finland made various technical preparations of the Finnish Defence Forces for membership, with the then Defence Minister Jyri Häkämies eager to pursue NATO membership. The government preferred to wait until after the negotiations of the new EU treaty were concluded before reviewing their policy on NATO, to determine if it included a new EU-level defence agreement.^[11]

Finnish think tank EVA [fi], which has regularly commissioned opinion polls on NATO membership, noted in its 2015 report a downward trend in the percent opposed that started in 1998, including a steep decline after the 2012 presidential election.^[12] In March 2014, during Russia's annexation of Crimea, one survey showed only 22 percent supported membership, though a second showed that 53 percent would support membership if Finnish leadership recommended it.^[13] Support for a military alliance with neighbor Sweden was also high, at 54 percent,^[14] and Finland could possibly seek an enlarged role for NORDEFCO.^[15] Finnish Minister of Defence Carl Haglund suggested that a referendum on NATO membership could be held sometime after the 2015 parliamentary election.^[16]

Before joining NATO, Finland participated in nearly all sub-areas of the Partnership for Peace programme, and provided peacekeeping forces to both the Afghanistan and Kosovo missions.^[10] The Finnish government's 1997 defense white paper strongly advocated the development of interoperability to support international crisis management in line with the PfP concept. The 1998–2008 defense program began in May 1997 at the "Spirit of PfP" training in northern Norway.^[17] Finland maintained close relations with NATO and purchased from its members military equipment including F-35 Lightning II aircraft.^[18] Newly procured equipment was required to meet NATO standards since before Finland seriously pursued membership.^[19] Despite "longstanding armanents cooperation with NATO," upon accession it still retained non-compatible materiel, such as the RK 62 assault rifle, that would not be decommissioned until the end of its lifecycle.^[20]

In April 2014, while Carl Haglund was Defence Minister, the government announced that it was negotiating a memorandum of understanding with NATO [fi] on Finland's readiness to receive military assistance and to aid NATO in equipment maintenance. He emphasized that this memorandum was not a step toward membership.^[21] The agreement, signed in September 2014, allows NATO and Finland to hold joint exercises on Finnish soil and permits assistance from NATO members in situations such as "disasters, disruptions, and threats to security".^[22] As such, Finland (and Sweden) participated in the 2015 NATO-led Arctic Challenge Exercise.^[23]

In January 2022, Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that Finland reserved the option of applying NATO membership if it chooses to do so, but she said it was "very unlikely" it would happen during her term as prime minister.^[24][25]

2022–2023: Accession process following the Russian invasion of Ukraine

February – May 2022: Initial response to the invasion

On 24 February 2022, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the prime minister reiterated that while Finland was "not currently facing an immediate military threat", joining NATO was still a possibility, noting that "the debate on NATO membership in Finland will change".^[26] On 25 February, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson threatened Finland and Sweden with "military and political consequences" if they attempted to join NATO. Both countries had attended the emergency NATO summit as members of NATO's Partnership for Peace and both had condemned the invasion and had provided assistance to Ukraine.^[27] Following a meeting on 1 March 2022 to discuss whether to apply to become full members of NATO, Prime Minister Sanna Marin stated that no decision had been made on the issue yet, saying that "such an important question needs to be dealt with thoroughly".^[28] According to news reports from early March 2022, Finland and Sweden had begun plans to apply for Major non-NATO ally status with the United States.^[29][30][31]

Opinion polling following the invasion showed an unprecedented increase in support for joining NATO among Finns, with a clear majority in favour.^[32] Several citizens' initiatives on the subject got the required 50,000 signatures, requiring the Parliament of Finland to consider the matter.^[33][34][35] President Niinistö characterised the polling as demonstrating sufficient popular support for an application.^[36] Prime Minister Marin suggested that the decision process must be concluded in the spring and in a matter of "weeks, not months".^[37][38]

On 13 April 2022, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs produced a report on the international security landscape and on the foreign and defence policy options available to Finland, which is expected to form the basis of the debate on NATO membership.^[39] The report identifies that the Russian invasion has changed the long-term European security environment and made it more difficult to predict and act in the near term.^[40] It does not explicitly take a position on NATO membership, but does state that the present security arrangements are insufficient and that membership would increase stability, although there is no immediate threat. As a member, Finland would not be obliged to accept foreign bases or the presence of nuclear weapons on its territory;^[41] Finland's defence budget would rise by 1 to 1.5%.^[42] Helsingin Sanomat assessed it as a positive evaluation of NATO membership.^[41]

Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the National Coalition Party and Swedish People's Party of Finland supported NATO membership, and the other parties were neutral or opposed to varying degrees. In 2016, the party conference of the National Coalition Party agreed that Finland should apply for membership "in the next few years".^[43] In the vision of the Swedish People's Party of Finland set out in the same year, Finland will be a NATO member in 2025.^[44] Many individual politicians have advocated for NATO as well, including the current President Sauli Niinistö and former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb,^[45] as well as former President Martti Ahtisaari,^[10][46] who has argued that Finland should join all the organizations supported by other Western democracies in order "to shrug off once and for all the burden of Finlandization".^[47] Two other former presidents from the Social Democratic Party, Tarja Halonen and Mauno Koivisto, have publicly opposed the idea, arguing that NATO membership would deteriorate Finland's relations with Russia.^[48] The Left Alliance has been the party most opposed to joining NATO; when they entered into coalition with the SDP in 2019, they made clear that any movement toward a military alliance would lead to the Left Alliance leaving the cabinet. The party's position changed following the invasion, with chair Li Andersson calling for a thoughtful, society-wide discussion and evaluation of the possibility of applying to join NATO,^[49] and later confirming that the party had decided not to resign from the government if an application is submitted.^[50] After the invasion and a large change in popular opinion, the leadership of the Center Party and Finns Party also changed position to support NATO membership.^[51][52]

NATO has consistently maintained its "open door policy".^[53] Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expected that the member states would "warmly welcome Finland as a member of NATO". He also said that this decision to invite Finland into NATO would offer it political protection during the ratification process.^[54] He has said that "Finnish membership would make NATO stronger", identifying the country's military capability and commitment to remaining a democratic society as assets.^[55]

Finland has received critical feedback from Russia for considering the possibility of joining NATO,^[57] with a 2009 study suggesting this could have repercussions for Russia's relations with the EU and NATO as a whole.^[58] Following the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, Finnish Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen reiterated that Finland had no plans to join NATO, and stated that the main lesson of the war was the need for closer ties to Russia.^[59] In a June 2014 interview in the Finnish newspaper Hufvudstadsbladet, Vladimir Putin's personal envoy Sergey Alexandrovich Markov accused Finland of extreme "Russophobia" and suggested that Finland joining NATO could start World War III.^[60] In July 2016, Putin stated on a visit to Finland that Russia would increase the number of troops on the Finnish border if Finland were to join NATO. He also warned that NATO would "fight to the last Finn against Russia".^[61][62]

After the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the radical shift in Finnish positions toward joining NATO, Maria Zakharova and Dmitry Medvedev warned that joining NATO would have consequences for Finland, including the deployment of nuclear weapons;^[63] Russian newspaper Izvestia reported that the Finnish lease on the Saimaa canal may be terminated.^[64]

According to Hanna Smith [fi], Director of Research at the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, the rapidity of Finnish movement into NATO has surprised Russia. She predicted that Russia will begin a hybrid campaign to influence the Finnish decision process, including cyber attacks, with increasing escalation if Finland moves closer to membership.^[65]

Russia has halted providing natural gas to neighbouring Finland after the Nordic country refused to pay supplier Gazprom in rubles. Russia's leading exporter of electricity to the Nordic market, RAO Nordic, has announced that it has decided to cut electricity supplies to Finland due to payment arrears.^[66]

Polls asking the Finnish public whether they support or oppose joining NATO have been regularly conducted. This table includes only unconditional questions; other polled topics include support for joining NATO should Sweden also join, and support for joining NATO if the Finnish government officially recommends membership, both of which generally increased public support for joining.^[67][68]

According to Helsingin Sanomat's data between 20 and 26 June 2022, 70% said Finland would not meet Turkey's demands, and 14% that it would.^[69] According to Ilta-Sanomat's data, between 30 January and 1 February 2023, 53% of Finnish respondents said they wanted to join NATO without waiting for Sweden to join, 28% said they wanted to wait to join NATO with Sweden, and 19% were undecided.^[70][71]