COVID-19 pandemic–related famines

Acute food insecurity estimates for 2020 using the IPC scale   Phase 1 (Minimal)   Phase 2 (Stressed)   Phase 3 (Crisis)   Phase 4 (Emergency)   Phase 5 (Critical)   No data   Not listed   Unclassified listed   At risk minority   Emerging hotspot
Date	1 December 2019 (2019-12-01)–present
Duration	4 years, 6 months and 2 weeks
Location	Multiple countries[1][2]  Afghanistan  Angola  Brazil  Burkina Faso  Chad  DR Congo  Ethiopia  Haiti  India  Mali  Mauritania  Myanmar  Niger  Nigeria  Pakistan  Senegal  South Africa  South Sudan  Sudan  Syria  Uganda  Venezuela  Yemen Full list see below
Cause	2019–2021 locust infestation, ongoing armed conflicts, COVID-19 pandemic (including associated recession, lockdowns and travel restrictions)

During the COVID-19 pandemic, food insecurity intensified in many places. In the second quarter of 2020, there were multiple warnings of famine later in the year.^[3][4] In an early report, the Nongovernmental Organization (NGO) Oxfam-International talks about "economic devastation"^[5] while the lead-author of the UNU-WIDER report compared COVID-19 to a "poverty tsunami".^[6] Others talk about "complete destitution",^[7] "unprecedented crisis",^[8] "natural disaster",^[9] "threat of catastrophic global famine".^[10] The decision of the WHO on 11 March 2020, to qualify COVID as a pandemic, that is "an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people" also contributed to building this global-scale disaster narrative.^[11]

Field evidence collected in more than 60 countries in the course of 2020^[12] indicate, however, that while some disruptions (affecting the stability of the global food system) were reported at local (hoarding) and international (restrictions on exports) levels, those took place primarily during the early days/weeks of the pandemic (and the subsequent waves of lockdowns) and did not lead to any major episode of "global famine", thus invalidating the catastrophic scenario that some experts had initially conjectured.

In September 2020, David Beasley, executive director of the World Food Programme, addressed the United Nations Security Council, stating that measures taken by donor countries over the course of the preceding five months, including the provision of $17 trillion in fiscal stimulus and central bank support, the suspension of debt repayments instituted by the IMF and G20 countries for the benefit of poorer countries, and donor support for WFP programmes, had averted impending famine, helping 270 million people at risk of starvation.^[13] As the pandemic-incited food issues began to subside, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered another global food crises compounding already extreme price increases.^{[14][15][16][17][18]}

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Background

Locust infestations

Exceptional weather patterns in 2018, including heavy rain, resulted in exponential growth of the desert locust population in the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa during 2019.^[19] Locusts form swarms which then go on to destroy crops, reducing food availability for both livestock and humans. The Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank state that 23 countries have been affected by locust infestations and an estimated US$8.5 billion in asset damages alone.^[20] An estimated 24 million people in associated regions were estimated to have had poor food security in July 2020.^[20]

The new locust wave spreading across Africa in June 2020 also sparked fears that supply shortages, especially in nations like Syria, Yemen, India and Ethiopia, might escalate the famine in their regions.^{[21][22][23][24][25]}

COVID-19 pandemic

Following the international spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and thus its associated illness, coronavirus disease 2019, several national governments implemented national lockdowns and international travel restrictions in order to prevent the spread of the disease.^[26] As a result of these precautions and panic buying, shortages related to the COVID-19 pandemic considerably rose whilst aid delivery capabilities and remittances from high-income nations fell. Simultaneously, many poorer workers in low- and middle-income nations also lost their jobs or ability to farm as a result of these lockdowns, whilst children could not receive school meals due to the education shutdown across much of the world.^{[citation needed]} The situation was further sustained into 2021 and beyond, with the 2021–2022 global supply chain crisis affecting the delivery of food and the 2021-2022 global energy crisis affecting the production of petrochemical fertilizer essential for food production.

A confirmed 6,881,955^[27] people have died directly from COVID-19, but Oxfam indicated in their July 2020 report that when including those who have died as a result of lack of food, this number is considerably higher.^[1] Oxfam projected in July 2020 that by the end of the year "12,000 people per day could die from COVID-19 linked hunger",^[1] with the United Nations stating that a total of 265 million people face acute food insecurity – an increase of 135 million people as a result of the pandemic.^[28][29]

The chief of the World Food Programme warned in April 2020 that without continued financial support from western nations, the 30 million people supported by the programme were at risk of death as a result of food insecurity in 2020.^[30][31][32] On 9 July, Oxfam released a report highlighting ten areas of "extreme hunger" alongside "emerging epicentres" of hunger, including areas in South America, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.^[1] In the third quarter, the concerns were reiterated in the New York Times and both the World Food Programme and the World Health Organization published statements noting the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on livelihoods and food security.

Overall, a review of evidence^[33] shows that in 2020, the biggest impact of COVID-19 on the different dimensions of food security has been on food access and affordability -and not on food availability, as was initially feared by many experts. Food systems' main function as a food supplier has thus been successfully maintained, with the New York Times stating: "The unfolding tragedy falls short of a famine Food remains widely available in most of the world, though prices have climbed in many countries. Rather, with the world economy expected to contract nearly 5 percent this year hundreds of millions of people are suffering an intensifying crisis over how to secure their basic dietary needs.".^[34][13][35]

Furthermore, there has been a significant disruption of various sectors, among the main implications of the crisis for food production would be: agriculture, animal industry, chemical supplies, value of land, markets and supply chains and jobs in agriculture.^[36]

In sum, although the outcome of COVID-19 has been a sharp degradation in food security, the food system itself has not been the cause of that degradation; instead the origin of this food security crisis has been the contraction of the global economy.^[33]

Armed conflicts

Several armed conflicts and displacement crises are ongoing, including those associated with the Yemeni Civil War, Syrian Civil War, insurgency in the Maghreb, Russo-Ukrainian War and Afghanistan conflict. Food production and transport through areas in armed conflicts is poor, and both armed and political conflict results in large displacements including refugees of the Syrian Civil War and the Venezuelan refugee crisis. As a result, these areas are more vulnerable to famine and food insecurity is high.^{[citation needed]}

Global Report on Food Crises

On 21 April, the United Nations World Food Programme warned that a famine "of biblical proportions" was expected in several parts of the world as a result of the pandemic.^[37][38] The release of 2020 Global Report on Food Crises indicated that 55 countries were at risk,^[39] with David Beasley estimating that in a worst-case scenario "about three dozen" countries would succumb to famine.^[38][40]

The United Nations forecast that the following member states would have significant areas with poor food security categorised as under "stress" (IPC phase 2), "crisis" (IPC phase 3), "emergency" (IPC phase 4) or "critical emergency" (IPC phase 5) in 2020:^[39]

It also raises alerts around:^[39]

An asterisk (*) indicates that country is considered to be an "extreme hunger" hotspot by Oxfam,^[1] as indicated in the July 2020 Oxfam report. These ten key areas of "extreme hunger" that account for 65% of the total population facing crisis-level hunger (IPC phase 3 or above) include Afghanistan, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen and the West African Sahel (including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal).^[1][2] It also noted "emerging epicentres" of hunger, alongside famine-stricken areas, in Brazil, India, Yemen, South Africa and the Sahel.^[1][2] The United Nations has made an "urgent call" to improve data analytics in several countries which may be at risk, including Congo, North Korea, Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Philippines and Sri Lanka.^[39]

Impact by area

Americas

Brazil

Brazil has been classified as an "emerging epicentre" of hunger by Oxfam.^[1] 38 million people in Brazil are part of the informal economy, with the vast majority entering unemployment as a result of local lockdowns.^[41] Several favelas have had poor water supply or water supply cut off during the pandemic, exacerbating worries about access to food and water.^[42] In March 2020, the National Congress of Brazil approved a payment plan of 600 reais (US$114) to informal workers. However, this has been criticised by Caritas, with the Brazilian executive director stating "now, it is just about food".^[41]

Haiti

Haiti has been classified as an "extreme hunger" hotspot by Oxfam.^[1] Haiti has been in recession for 1.5 years, with the cost of rice doubling since 2019.^[43] A drop in remittances, which account for 20% of the nation's GDP, as a result of an increase in unemployment in the United States and other western nations alongside has exacerbated the crisis. Half of all Haitian jobs are in agriculture, which has been severely hit by the pandemic. Pre-pandemic, the United Nations had forecast that 40% of Haitians would rely on international aid for food, and it is expected that this number will rise.^[43]

United States

Food availability

Following protests against police brutality and associated civil unrest, some cities experienced lack of food. This unrest can accelerate the flight of businesses in areas where the expectation of safe operation is low.^[44] For example, in Chicago's South Side communities, there were few choices for groceries as most stores closed in order to prevent looting.^[45] In Minneapolis when protests against police brutality started, some neighbourhoods saw looting and vandalism. Lake Street suffered from a food desert with few grocery stores, pharmacies and other essential businesses open. These issues are compounded by local lockdowns, with many businesses also closed because of the pandemic.^[46]

Remittances

The United States is the world's largest source of remittances, and money sent from workers in the United States abroad to low and middle income nations is vital for the economies of recipient nations.^[47][48] In 2019, remittances from the United States and other western nations accounts for a large proportion of many national GDP values, most notably Tonga (37.6%), Haiti (37.1%), South Sudan (34.1%), Kyrgyzstan (29.2%), and Tajikistan (28.2%).^[14] However, the World Bank forecasts that remittances are expected to drop 19.7% to US$445 billion, which it states represents "a loss of a crucial financing lifeline for many vulnerable households" requiring many to redirect savings away from education towards solving food shortages.^[15] It is likely that this drop in remittance is associated with the lockdown and recession in western nations, such as the United States, which increase joblessness and prevent many from sending money to families in their home countries. This is likely to add additional strain in areas at risk of food insecurity, especially in nations facing other crises.^[48]

Venezuela

Zdroj:https://en.wikipedia.org?pojem=Food_security_during_the_COVID-19_pandemic
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